The 'greased piglet' wriggles free again, but this PM's mutinous party still smells blood

And those who best know Mr Johnson understand that while he may have won this particular battle, he is not going to willingly lead the Conservatives into a war he cannot win.

Having defied the odds to secure the London mayoralty - not once but twice - before triumphing in the EU referendum and going on to deliver the Conservatives’ biggest mandate in 40 years at the last general election, losing simply isn’t something “Big Dog” does. It is why he pulled out of the 2016 leadership race and why it still rankles that he didn’t get a first at Oxford.

Until Monday, it was suggested that the Prime Minister would have to be dragged out of Downing Street “kicking and screaming”, but if he fears this “win” will soon translate into a “loss”, then he is unlikely to give himself the opportunity for a fresh disaster.

As Sir Winston’s biographer, Mr Johnson needs no lessons in voters’ penchant for punishing even those who have delivered world peace. A cost of living crisis already stands in the way of possible victory come 2024 - now he must add a mutinous and divided party into the mix.

An optimist’s 12-month reprieve is a pessimist’s death sentence, not least when we all know a week is a long time in politics.

The rebels may not have landed the fatal blow they intended, but history shows losing the confidence of even a minority of MPs can prove mortally wounding.

Jacob Rees-Mogg may argue that “just one vote is enough”, but it wasn’t long ago that he declared it a “terrible result” that a third of Theresa May’s MPs had voted against her in 2016. “Under all constitutional norms she ought to go and see the Queen urgently and resign", he insisted.

Six years on and Mr Johnson on Monday found himself in the unenviable position of not even having enough publicly declared supporters by the time the voting began at 6pm. He was 33 votes short of the 180 needed to save his premiership.

By comparison, Mrs May went into her confidence ballot safe in the knowledge that she could guarantee victory (albeit short-lived).

As the Downing Street spin machine went into overdrive to fortify the Prime Minister’s fanbase on Monday, it must have worried No 10 that so few Tories were willing to give their patronage on the record.

The Cabinet and payroll might have rallied (although Priti Patel’s tweet of support was conspicuous by its absence), but the numbers suggest the MPs who did secretly "back Boris" were unwilling to admit to it.

Even the so-called “greased piglet” is going to struggle to let that one slip, no matter how Teflon-coated he may be.

Mrs May, Sir John Major and most famously Margaret Thatcher all found to their cost that once Conservatives smell blood, a slow and painful death normally ensues.

Whether Mr Johnson can successfully apply a tourniquet appears to rely on several factors.

While his approval ratings may be at an all time low - even among ConHome readers - pollsters have been at pains to point out that his unpopularity is not unusual for a midterm Prime Minister. Downing Street could argue that a YouGov survey suggesting more than half of Tory voters (53 per cent) want to keep him as PM - not to mention the fact that Labour is only six points ahead - shows this result has finally burst the Westminster bubble. Cue much more talk of this “drawing a line” under partygate (despite the ongoing Privileges Committee investigation) and “focusing on what really matters to people.”

Lack of viable alternative only thing keeping PM in place

If, like the local elections, the two imminent by-elections are not as catastrophic as CCHQ is frantically briefing then that could also help. (Seriously heavy defeats could prompt the 1922 Committee to change the rules on not holding another confidence vote for 12 months).

A reshuffle seems unlikely following such a show of ministerial loyalty but a policy blitz – including a reverse ferret on the universally despised Health and Social Care Levy – could help win over the growing number of Tories upset by the Government’s tax-and-spend approach to the cost of living crisis.

A speech, laying out his vision for how Britain might “take advantage of our news freedoms, cut costs and drive growth,” as he stated in his begging letter to colleagues, would not go amiss either.

As it stands, the only thing really keeping the Prime Minister in place right now is the lack of a viable alternative. The vultures, however, are circling. It is going to take a unique amount of doggedness to bring this disobedient party to heel.